In this paper we consider duration type models and their generalizations
for modeling default risk. The models are motivated by noting similarities
between reliability, survival analysis and mortgage default risk. We
present Bayesian modeling strategies used in reliability analysis for
describing time to default data. Our models include proportional hazards
type generalized gamma and mixture models which are capable of
capturing nonmonotonic default rates. We develop Bayesian inference for
our models and illustrate their implementation using actual time to default
data from the US mortgage market.
conditions.