The Use of Modeling and Statistics in Defense Analysis
Organizer: Nancy Spruill
(spruilnl@acq.osd.mil)
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Technology)

 

Description:
There are a wide range of problems and issues in defense decision making that rely on modeling and statistics. This session looks at a range of those from technology development to wargaming to inventory management. However, translating the results into information and options that are useful to decision makers is equally important. This session also addresses this issue and looks at Army analysis as an example.

Format:
This session will consist of a series of papers by people in the defense applications area.

Participants:
Colonel William Crain (presentation, Using Advanced Modeling and Simulation Technologies and Techniques in the Analysis of Defense)
Colonel William Crain is the Deputy Director for the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO), Alexandria, Virginia. His degrees include a B.S. in 1975 from the U.S. Military Academy and an M.S. in 1975 from the University of Southern California. He is currently pursuing a doctorate in Information Technology at George Mason University. Colonel Crain has completed the Infantry Officer Basic and Armored Officer Advanced Courses, Airborne, Ranger, Army Command and General Staff College and the School for Advanced Military Studies. Colonel Crain served as a Rifle Platoon Leader, Mortar Platoon Leader, Anti-Tank Platoon Leader, Air Operations Officer and Company Executive Officer with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) at Fort Campbell, Kentucky. He later served as a Company Commander, Brigade Assistant Operations Officer and Battalion Operations Officer with the 3rd Armored Division in Germany. Returning from Germany, Colonel Crain served first as a Tactics Instructor and later as an Operations Research Systems Analyst (ORSA) in the Infantry School at Fort Benning, Georgia. Joining the 1st Cavalry Division in 1990, Colonel Crain served as a Mechanized Infantry Battalion Task Force Operations Officer during the Gulf War. This assignment was followed by a tour as Aide de Camp for the Commander-in-Chief, U. S. Forces Command, Fort McPherson, Georgia. He was then assigned as an ORSA and later assumed duties as Division Chief, Operational Capabilities Assessment - Southwest Asia, at the Center for Army Analysis. Before joining the DMSO Colonel Crain deployed again with the 1st Cavalry Division as Chief of Strategic Plans for the Multi National Division (North) in Tuzla, Bosnia.

Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Maxwell (presentation, The Joint Warfare System (JWARS): A Tool to Improve Combat Simulation for the Information Age Military)
Lieutenant Colonel Dan Maxwell is currently a senior operations research analyst and the US Army representative at the Joint Warfighting System (JWARS) Office in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program Analysis and Evaluation Directorate. Prior to joining OSD, Dan was assigned to the US Army Concepts Analysis Agency and provided analysis in support of many key DoD studies, including most recently, the National Defense Panel (NDP), the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), and the Deep Attack Weapons Mix Study (DAWMS). Dan is a member of the US Army Military Police Corps, and spent his early career in various MP leadership positions throughout the Army. He holds a Ph.D. in Information Technology from George Mason University, an MBA from Long Island University, and a B.S. in Criminal Justice from Rochester Institute of Technology. In addition to his analysis in support of DoD leaders, Dan has research interests, and numerous publications in the areas of decision analytic modeling techniques, decision analytic algorithms, decision analysis software, resource allocation modeling, and future approaches to analysis in support of governmental decision-making.

Ron Fricker (presentation, Improving Inventory Performance by "Rightsizing" Inventory Reorder Points)
Dr. Ron Fricker is an Associate Statistician at RAND. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Statistics from Yale University, an M.S. in Operations Research from The George Washington University, and a B.S. from the United States Naval Academy. Upon graduation from the Naval Academy, Dr. Fricker served as an engineering officer on the USS Halsey (CG-23) and as an engineering instructor at the Surface Warfare Officer School. After leaving active duty, he worked for the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) resolving design issues for the Ticonderoga (CG-47) and Wasp (LHD-1) shipbuilding programs. Dr. Fricker's current research at RAND includes logistics process improvement and military personnel management. His work has appeared in the Naval Institute's Proceedings, Naval Research Logistics, the Journal of Quality Technology, National Performance Review, and Chance Magazine.

Chien Huo (presentation, Use of Decision Support Simulation Tool in Army Resource Decisions)

Lionel Galway (poster, Modeling Support Infrastructure for the Expeditionary Aerospace Force)
Lionel Galway is a Senior Statistician and a researcher in the Resource Management program in Project AIR FORCE at RAND. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.S. in Statistics from Carnegie Mellon University and a B.S. from the University of New Orleans. His research at RAND focuses on the transformation of Air Force logistics to meet the challenges of the new global security environment. While at RAND he has also worked on Army and Navy logistics, arms control, and civil justice.

Yvonne M. Martinez (poster, Information and Knowledge Organization to Support Modeling and Statistics in Defense)
Yvonne M. Martinez is the Principal Investigator for the DoD project, Prototype Slapper Detonator Knowledge Base. She is a Computer Information Specialist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the Statistical Sciences Group. Her specialization is in graphical user interfaces (GUIs), knowledge bases, and prototype systems design.

Discussant:
Nancy Spruill